Ledger · Timestamped

ledger :: 48 claims of 97

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half right

wrong

still open

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11 of 20 resolved

Every approved prediction, timestamped to the second it was said and scored against public evidence. A partial counts half, and no rate is published below 20 resolved calls, filtered or not. Filters are shareable: they live in the URL.

playlist :: oldest first

1 runningIf current demographic trends continue, Muslims will come to control Europe within about 25 years, i.e. by roughly 2051.2051-01-15ours
2 runningBy 2050, white Americans will no longer be a majority of the United States population.2050-12-31his
3 runningUS and Israeli forces will attack Iran's water supply, dams, reservoirs, and power plants.2027-03-03ours
4 rightThe US-Iran war that began in late February 2026 will last at least many weeks, and possibly years.2026-06-03oursThe war ran more than 13 weeks and was still generating strikes on 6 June, clearing the many-weeks threshold before the deadline. The many-years branch remains unsettled.
5 runningThe US and Israel will continue their air campaign against Tehran despite its strategic ineffectiveness.!2026-06-03ours
6 rightIran will close the Strait of Hormuz in order to strangle the global economy.2026-09-03oursIran shut the strait after the 2 March 2026 strikes and the IRGC declared it closed until further notice on 12 July. Note the closure was already under way when this clip published.
7 rightThe global economy will suffer greatly over the few months following the lecture.2026-07-03hisThe World Bank cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.5 percent on 11 June, the weakest since the pandemic, after Brent rose from 61 to 118 dollars a barrel in the first quarter.
8 rightBahrain will become one of the major centers of the US-Iran conflict.2026-09-03oursIranian missiles and drones struck US Naval Forces Central Command in Manama on 28 February 2026, the first day of the war, at a base hosting about 8,300 sailors.
9 runningIran will respond to the American campaign with guerrilla warfare, sheltering in its mountains while launching harassment strikes with drones and rockets against GCC states and Israel.!2026-09-05ours
10 halfWithin the next few weeks the United States will visibly pursue a three-pillar strategy in Iran: decapitation of leadership, aerial bombardment, and arming and bribing ethnic insurgent groups.2026-04-30hisThree pillars were claimed and two and a half are evidenced. Decapitation and the air campaign are documented, the arming half of the third is reported, and the bribing half has no payment record.
11 runningThe United States will have the manufacturing capacity to sustain a war against Iran in roughly five years (around 2031), but does not have it now.2031-03-05ours
12 runningNo nuclear weapons will be used by any party during the current US-Iran war.2028-03-10ours
13 runningIf the US deploys ground troops it will lose the war, after which CENTCOM's Middle East military role will transfer to Israel.2030-03-12ours
14 runningThe United States will not withdraw from the Middle East, because its economy depends on remaining engaged there.2028-03-12ours
15 runningIsrael will expand its territory as a result of this war.2030-03-12ours
16 rightSaudi Arabia will become a flashpoint in the Iran war.2026-06-30oursIranian drones hit the Ras Tanura refinery on 2 March 2026, four missiles aimed at Riyadh were intercepted in mid-March, and Riyadh struck inside Iran in late March, all before the deadline.
17 runningOver the next ten to twenty years there will be large-scale deindustrialization and deurbanization, with urban populations, especially the young, moving back to the countryside.2046-03-24ours
18 runningIsrael will become the dominant regional hegemon of the Middle East, establishing a 'Pax Judaica'.2046-03-24ours
19 runningNationalism and remilitarization will be a defining global trend of the next ten to twenty years, with resilient nations mobilizing their young to fight.2046-03-24ours
20 runningWith the end of American hegemony, world trade will reorganize into mercantilist regional trading blocs rather than a single global system.2036-03-24ours
21 runningGermany and Russia will go to war against each other within roughly the next five to ten years, before later reconciling.2036-03-24ours
22 runningMigration flows from Africa and the Middle East into Europe, and from Latin America into the United States, will accelerate by roughly one hundred times.2036-03-24ours
23 runningImmigration-driven cultural tension will lead to civil conflict inside North America and Europe.2046-03-24ours
24 runningResource-rich nations will institute AI surveillance states ('techno-Marxism') to ration resources and control their populations, producing sharp class stratification.2046-03-24ours
25 runningRussia and Germany will eventually form an alliance in Europe, within the ten-to-twenty-year horizon he describes.2046-03-24ours
26 runningProf Jiang will end the semester with four lectures on The Divine Comedy delivered once every two weeks, starting the Friday after this lecture.!2026-06-30ours
27 runningUS public support for the Iran war, currently around 40 percent, will decline as the war continues.2026-12-31ours
28 wrongThe United States will send ground troops into Iran, possibly as soon as the weekend following this lecture (28-29 March 2026).2026-03-30hisNo US ground troops entered Iran on the weekend of 28 and 29 March 2026. Hegseth said the US had taken Iran's airspace and waterways “without boots on the ground”.
29 runningIf the war continues and ground forces are used, the world will run out of oil by mid-April 2026, on a JP Morgan estimate.!2026-04-15his
30 runningIf Iran strikes GCC energy infrastructure in retaliation, the world will lose 20 percent of its energy supply.!2026-07-07ours
31 rightTrump will visit China in May, as part of China paying off both Russia and the United States to keep oceanic trade open.2026-06-01hisTrump was in Beijing from 13 to 15 May 2026 and met Xi on 14 May. The trip had been rescheduled publicly before the video, and the payoff mechanism involving Russia is not established.
32 runningThe Trump administration will move next to assert US authority over Greenland as an Arctic choke point.2027-04-07ours
33 runningIf the United States continues fighting an air war over Iran, it will lose increasing numbers of aircraft due to pilot fatigue, maintenance strain, and Iranian adaptation.2026-12-31ours
34 runningIf the United States attacks Iranian civilian infrastructure such as power plants, Iran will retaliate by striking GCC oil fields, desalination plants, and universities.!2026-06-07ours
35 runningFuel prices will rise so sharply and so quickly that the civilian aviation industry effectively collapses, with air travel costing as much as ten times current prices.!2026-10-07ours
36 runningIf the United States destroys Iranian power plants, Iran will commit to total war aimed at destroying the American military presence in the Middle East.!2026-07-07ours
37 rightThe United States will establish its own choke point over the Strait of Hormuz, including the option of blockading it.2026-12-31oursTrump declared the US “guardian of the Hormuz Strait” on 13 July 2026, reinstated the naval blockade and demanded 20 percent of all cargo shipped; transits fell to 39 in a week.
38 runningIf the US-Iran war drags on, the world economy will suffer severely.2026-12-31ours
39 runningDonald Trump will pursue a third presidential term.2028-11-07ours
40 runningRussia and China will feel the strain of the US-Iran war and may pressure Iran to end it.2026-12-31ours
41 runningIf the ceasefire fails and the war resumes, the United States will begin targeting Iranian civilian infrastructure such as bridges, universities, reservoirs, and power plants.2027-04-21ours
42 runningThe Iran-United States war will continue for years rather than months, possibly lasting 10 to 20 years.2027-04-21ours
43 rightWithin the next few months the United States will shift its Iran campaign to a strategy of economic strangulation, stoking ethnic tension, and destroying civilian infrastructure such as water, power, and transport networks.2026-10-28hisAfter 8 July 2026, US sanctions and a blockade began; the IMF projected 6.1 percent Iranian contraction and 68.9 percent inflation, and June and July 2026 strikes hit water, bridges and railways.
44 runningOpenAI will turn ChatGPT into a sexual companion product in order to attract more users.2026-12-31ours
45 runningThe US will launch a ground invasion of Iran, possibly as early as October 2025, or after the November 2026 midterm elections.2027-01-01ours
46 wrongIn a few weeks time, there will be a massive global emergency including food shortages, inflation, and a skyrocketing oil price.2026-08-31oursThis Prediction does not Happen, Thank GOD
47 neverIf Argentina wins the World Cup and Messi is the hero of the game, then Messi will become the next president of Argentina.2031-07-18oursSpain beat Argentina 1-0 in the final on 19 July 2026, the day after he said it, so the “if” failed and can never now be met. This is not a judgement on whether Messi will enter Argentine politics.
48 runningArgentina will reclaim the Falkland Islands with the support of the United States within the next year.2027-07-20ours

36 of these are waiting on evidence and will be scored when it is in. :: how a claim is scored